Data from Credit Suisse going back to 1978 shows:The last five 2-10 inversions have eventually led to recessions.A recession occurs, on average, 22 months following a 2-10 inversion.The S&P 500 is up, on average, 12% one year after a 2-10 inversion.It’s not until about 18 months after an inversion when the stock market usually turns and posts negative returns.

Source: Key yield curve inverts as 10-year tops 2-year yield